Wednesday, October 29, 2003

Oct 29 2003

Okay, okay, yes, I forgot to update yesterday. Sorry. ‘Twas in a strange haze at work, like somebody had cast a hex on me. My mind was fogged up.

Here’s what I’d intended to post yesterday:

I distrust technology predictions. But I’m going to make one.

How long does it take a really major technological change to occur? I’m talking about changes on the scale of the transition from mainframes to PCs, or the ubiquity of Microsoft, or truly “household” acceptance of the web.

It took years. Lest we forget: Microsoft was around for a long time before it became such a dominant part of the technological landscape. The web was around for, what five to ten years before you could reliably recommend a cool new website to a random acquaintance without getting a blank stare.

So, what about the Macintosh? The Mac was in trouble ten years ago. It began the turnaround five years ago with the introduction of the iMac, continuing through the the iPod and OS X.

Here’s my prediction: The Mac is going to gain ground on the PC, and it will start in the next year or two. With the modernization of MacOS in OS X, users are seeing an OS that they’re willing to play around with on the desktop. There’s enough eye candy to intrigue and entice people. There’s a lot of excitement about Macintosh these days, which is not something people had been accusing the Mac of in years past. Heck, the main technology reporter for the Wall Street Journal wrote a full column yesterday recommending the Macintosh over the PC, almost unequivocably.

Something’s going to happen.

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