Friday, November 27, 1998

Oh, I hope this one stays up for awhile. ZDnet has an article entitled “Analysts: No market for a third browser.” They’re basically predicting that Netscape Navigator and Internet Explorer will remain the only browsers on the market, because there “simply isn’t a business model for a mainstream third browser”.

Prediction: Back in the Dark Ages of the web, there was only Netscape, and it was a good browser. Then came Internet Explorer, and it’s taken a long time for netizens to get used to it. Content providers have had to shift their thinking, users have had to get on one side or the other, and businesses have had to make some tough choices. Now, the web is pretty solidly used to Netscape and IE. Within the coming year, the idea of another browser will become much less alien, and Opera (and others) will take a much larger foothold. Opera’s already had a million downloads. Netscape and IE will probably remain dominant in the short term, but they’d better watch out. Why download a 50 MB browser when a 1.2 MB one will work faster?

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